Twitchy, Unreliable-Looking

Archive for September 2009

After being proven fools for using the normal comparative yardstick regarding Dollhouse ratings last season, everyone appears to have jumped right back into doing it again anyway this season. So let me go on the record here with my own stance. Sort of a compilation of what I’ve been saying elsewhere.

The ratings for the season two premiere are determinative of absolutely nothing when it comes to the show’s future. Kevin Reilly and Peter Rice, for better or for worse, are playing the long game. That much was made clear when they renewed the show to begin with, dashing the predictions of everyone using the normal comparative yardstick.

They negotiated a reduction in the show’s budget (not that you can tell). They reportedly got the studio to pick up more of the tab. They’re fully aware that the various issues surrounding last season were going to hurt them going into this one. And, not being an obvious mainstream hit, it wasn’t a show that was going to get a big advertising spend.

FOX Broadcasting knows all of this, and they know what all of this does to the notion of expectations and the premise of having patience. The various ratings stories using words like “disappointing” baffle me because, all things considered, the proper and more accurate term would be “expected” — or “not really unexpected”, if you prefer.

There’s simply nothing to see in these ratings. They tell us only what everyone should have already known going in: This is going to take time. It defies logic that anyone in any position of relevance at the network is looking at this and going, “Well, this is a surprise.”

Even stating that “these aren’t good ratings to relaunch to” is a construction that doesn’t reflect the situation. Given the long game Reilly and Rice are playing, technically these aren’t “bad ratings to relaunch to” either, because they understand the context surrounding them. All the harping on “these aren’t good ratings” misses what FOX is going to be paying attention to, and when they’re going to be paying attention to it. And it just, even if inadvertently, feeds the new “Dollhouse death watch” frenzy.

If I believed for one moment that Reilly and Rice were sitting around expecting even “Omega”-sized overnights, maybe “these aren’t good ratings to relaunch to” would make sense to me. But since I happen to believe this likely is entirely expected, I refuse to pass on these numbers using the normal comparative yardstick.

There’s simply nothing to see here. Nothing matters but what happens over time. And, as shown last year despite everyone ignoring it, the metrics here have changed. Does that mean Dollhouse is a lock for renewal? Of course not. But it also means the premiere’s ratings are almost entirely irrelevant.